Friday, April 15, 2016

Luck vs. skill

In "The Warriors Aren't Lucky", there is an examination of the role of skill versus luck in a variety of activities. The model shown below gives an outline for the article:


The range moves from skill to luck as you move from left to right. I found it interesting to note that investing is really something of a literal crapshoot. According to the author, Justin Fox, the skill of stockpicking really plays a very tiny role in the overall return. I guess there's a reason why people like Warren Buffet command so much respect!

I also found it fascinating that football requires the most luck of all of professional team sports. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that because of the violence involved, playoffs in football are single contests. Chance can play a much greater role in the form of injured stars or freaky bounces. I suppose the Patriots would nod their heads in agreement as the Helmet Catch rolls on in the background.


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