Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Partial credit?

Original post:  Jan 28, 2015

Yesterday, a major storm system swept through the Northeast. It delivered over 30" of snow to some parts of Massachusetts. My town ended up with over two feet. The Mansfield office is still closed today to clean up.

Despite the wreckage in our area, there are still cries of fury. Most of them are coming from the New York area. In an unprecedented move, the governor shut down the subway (for the first time ever) and banned road travel. There were original predictions of two to three feet in NYC. They ended up with only about a foot of snow. That level is a nuisance, but should not have crippled the city.

Part of the challenge is that weather forecasting is still an inexact science. Weather fronts do not always move in straight lines. While our technology has improved dramatically, we still don't understand all of the variables that go into weather on a moment-by-moment basis. Air pressure near the ground can be very different at 100 feet up and dramatically different at 10,000 feet. All of this compexity means that it isn't humanly possible to make perfect predictions. It turns out that the forecasters were right--they just missed the target slightly. The storm passed fifty miles east of New York and hammered Long Island and New England.

Since NYC is such a major media market, I fully expect this mini-controversy to fill lots of air time on the 24 hour news circuit. There will be fingers wagging and heads shaking--particularly the next time another great storm heads towards that metropolitan area. Still, I am glad that we are taking precautions even if the events fizzle out. I have never personally been stranded on an icy roadside miles from home in impassable traffic. I hope I never have to experience that tragedy.

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