Enough water to cover Rhode Island ten feet deep!

Original post:  May 28, 2015

Massive storms have been drenching the Lone Star state. Over this past weekend, as much as a foot of rain fell on certain areas near Houston. In the month of May, parts of the state have received over 20"! By now, you have certainly seen the photos and footage of the enormous amounts of damage caused by the deluge.

We often lack a frame of reference to understand exactly how much water fell on Texas in these recent storms. To give you some idea, Texas reservoirs have gone from 73% to 82% full in the month of May. That means an additional 8,000,000 acre-feet of water was added.

One acre-foot is the standard measure of water. It equals enough water to cover an acre of ground one foot deep. Here is a chart which compares an acre-foot of water to a six-foot human being to scale:

Here is a comparison of one million acre-feet to some landmarks. Again, this is to scale:

The total amount of water that was added to the reservoirs was eight times that amount shown in the second chart!

That is enough to cover the state of Rhode Island in ten feet of water!

Here is the link to the original reference:  Visualized: How the insane amount of rain in Texas could turn Rhode Island into a lake - The Washington Post

A loose interpretation of the classics

Original post:  May 26, 2015

Over the weekend, we took a side trip to the Lakes Region of New Hampshire. Since our boys are of a certain age, we decided to spend some time at the Funstop. This building houses the self-proclaimed "largest arcade in the world." Whether it is or is not, it is certainly an amazing place. The top level is filled with classic video games. It is, in fact, a living museum with actual working models of the very arcade games that I played when I was the age my boys are now.

There was a Pong game from 1972. Of course, we had to try it. It was actually much more difficult to play than you would think. Perhaps it is because the controls were really not well refined.

There was also an old football game where you could actually run real "plays". Given the state of computer programming at the time, the "players" were literally the letters "x" and "o"!

I can remember spending hours at a time in this electronic playground. It seems like we were always in search of that ephemeral high when you actually entered temporary immortality. Fortunately, I was able to show the boys that I still had a few skills left:

Teaching in the age of Minecraft

Original post:  May 22, 2015

As a parent, it's a constant struggle. Every choice has benefits and drawbacks. On the one hand, you can't be too lenient because kids need rules and structure. On the other hand, you also don't want to make too many rules because it will stifle creativity.

Modern parenting also offers a major dilemma in screen time. It's hard to deny my kids the iPad when I'm constantly on my phone or laptop. While they are normal in most respects and like to play outside, they also love their games and videos. One of their all-time favorites is Minecraft.

This humble game was one of the first to really catch fire. Think of it as electronic Lego. While there is a survivalist game that was part of the original release, more often than not the kids like to play the "creative" version. In this setting, there are unlimited amounts of building materials available. You can literally spend days building entire worlds. Here is one example for the more literal minded. It's an electronic re-creation of the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris:

You can find many spectacular examples with easy Google searches of elaborate presentations that go on and on.

I ran across an article recently that discussed ways teachers are now incorporating Minecraft into lesson plans. It helps capture the imagination of students in a non-traditional way. Here is one quote from the article:

Diane Main teaches a high-school computer-science class at the Harker School in San Jose, California. She has been using MinecraftEdu with her students for the past two years and has been consistently impressed by what her students have created in the game, especially when they are given the flexibility to follow their own interests, figuring out how to do the desired actions in their own way. "When you have opportunities for creativity and more open-ended situations, it allows kids to figure out that they can try things, they can do things differently—there’s not one formulaic way to do well in this class," Main said. "A student told me after the class that he learned that first option [to solving a problem] isn’t always the best option. And that’s something you can’t teach kids—they need to have the opportunity to experience it themselves."

What surprises me even more than the creative potential is the way that Minecraft is opening new doors for entertainment. My boys will literally watch others build and navigate these virtual worlds. There are YouTube videos with famous players like Stampy Longnose that serve as virtual guides for ten to twenty minutes at a time. I literally have to set time limits to get the boys to stop watching. Their endless fascination reminds me of the time I spent in arcades once I had run out of quarters watching other expert players on the games. I suppose this is something similar--where you can watch and learn new moves and tactics you might never otherwise had considered.

Here are the links to the articles I referenced:

Teaching in the Age of Minecraft - The Atlantic

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/21/technology/personaltech/minecraft-stars-on-youtube-share-secrets-to-their-celebrity.ht…

Chicken and the egg

Original post: May 21, 2015

There is a natural tension that often accompanies any attempt to bring innovation into the world. There will always be defenders of the status quo. Many of those people make their living by supporting the way things are. It is also much easier to keep something new from happening than it is to start something fresh. Finally, there are costs to innovation. In order for someone to make the leap towards something unfamiliar, they have to feel that there is enough of a benefit.

There are many situations where we might find ourselves in a standoff. It's like the answer to the perennial question:  which came first, the chicken or the egg? For many innovative ideas, you need to recruit willing participants. However, it can be difficult to recruit these participants without promising them some kind of defined benefit. Of course, you can't prove the defined benefit unless you have the test data from the willing participants!

Something similar to this is going on in California. Residents there are struggling to comply with water restrictions due to a severe drought which has stretched on for four years. Ironically, the farmers were able to avoid the most serious restrictions despite the fact that they currently use up to 90% of the water in the state! Of course, they also realize that this drought threatens their long-term survival.

One of the best ways to save water is to irrigate fields using more efficient methods. Instead of the familiar sprinklers in crop circles, drip tape can help water get down to the roots much more effectively. Less water ends up wasted because it's blown away by winds or evaporating uselessly on stems and leaves. Unfortunately, it's really tough work to lay down drip tape (see the photo above). It is also quite costly to invest in the initial outlay of equipment and labor to install this system. It's much cheaper to drill deeper to try to bring up more groundwater. Of course, the cheaper method also has the drawback of using up a finite resource. It also has the additional handicap of making it far less likely that the groundwater will ever be replaced (even if the rains return). There are some instances of such drastic over-use of groundwater that resulted in the ground sinking several feet because so much water was taken from the aquifer!

There are no easy solutions. Standing outside the situation, it's easy to say that the farmers should invest in drip technology. That doesn't account for the fact that they may not have the capital available to invest. If the weather does not improve, it will certainly force harder choices in the days ahead.

Here is an article describing some of the challenges facing the farmers:  Why California Farmers Are Conflicted About Using Less Water : All Tech Considered : NPR

Regression to the mean

Original post:  May 20, 2015

Part of the human experience is learning to deal with frustration and disappointment. It's true at work and it's true in our home lives as well.

My son is in his first year of kid-pitched baseball. He can get quite competitive (don't know where he gets that from). His team, the Cubs, is scheduled to play 14 games in total before the playoffs. They started off on an incredible run. They were 7-0-1 heading into this week's games. Yes, there are ties at his age.

On Monday, they started off poorly. They only play six innings. The teams can only score a maximum of five runs in the first five frames. The Cubs gave up the maximum ten runs in the first two innings--largely because their fielding is atrocious. While they battled back to tie the game, they ended up losing 16-14. It was not a winning result and the kids were disappointed. With the short season, they played again last night (Tuesday).

Unfortunately for the boys, their poor play carried over into this game as well. Their opponent, the Rockies, are the best hitting and highest scoring team in the league. They punished the Cubs. To be honest, I didn't appreciate the opposing coach calling for steals while up ten runs, but that's for another story. Worse still, my boy was frustrated by both the solid hitting of the other team and the many poor plays by his own team members. Simple plays which could have helped the team get out of the inning turned into comical errors and runs for the other side.

I was not happy to see my boy stomping around and glaring at his teammates. After the game, he was in a foul mood and filled with tears. He did not want to talk about the game. I made him a deal. We could go for frozen yogurt (one of his favorites) if we could sit and talk calmly.

Once he had cooled down, he started digging into his mounded bowl and we talked. We reviewed his performance and talked about what we might do differently next time. He agreed that as a pitcher, he couldn't control the actions of his fielders. We'd work on improving his pitching, but there were two immediate things he could do to help his team. First, he could anticipate where the plays would occur and back up his teammates. If a ball was overthrown, he could support his fellow players and possibly prevent further damage. Second, he had to stop with the tantrums. All of his demonstrations would only serve to upset his teammates further. Additionally, his raging would take away from his own performance since he would lose control of his pitching. He knew that his pitching angry made him perform worse. He could be upset, but he had to keep it inside and not take it out on others or let the other team know it was affecting his game.

We both vowed to leave the negatives inside the building and forget about it leading out the door.

I also couldn't help myself. I had to explain to him the fancy concept of "regression to the mean". I don't expect him to remember it, but baseball does help teach the concept well. Hot streaks and luck play a major role, but teams usually find their talent level over the course of the season. I'm sure we'll keep coming back to the same lesson. Hopefully, it will help him later in life. You never know what sticks and what doesn't.

Unlikely fitness tip

Original post:  May 18, 2015

Now that the weather is starting to warm up, many of us will be getting more activity. It's always great to get outside for a walk or run on a bright, sunny day.

Over the weekend, I learned something that I had never even contemplated. I've been buying running shoes for years and always wondered what the extra eyelet was for. Even if you purchase a pair of shoes with the laces already in place, they are never threaded through that hole.

Well, this brief video explains exactly what that eyelet is for. It allows you to create a loop that will help cinch the shoe tightly so that it fits better around the back of your heel!

Best of luck as you continue on your fitness adventure!

Scaling new heights

Original post:  May 15, 2015

Imagine taking a trip back in time to see the world as it was. In 1884, architecture looked very different. This chart displayed the tallest buildings in the world at that point:

The tallest structure in the world had not yet been completed. It was the Washington Monument!

You can also see why the pyramids were so impressive. They had been completed almost 5,000 years earlier.

Thanks to a number of key inventions, we are now able to build ever-larger skyscrapers. Two of the most important are cement and elevators.

Here is a link to an article explaining the role of cement in the modern age:  http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/09/portland-cement-changed-the-way-the-world-looked/380140/

Here is an earlier blog post on the role of elevators:  What is the #1 obstacle to taller buildings?

To see what the chart above would look like if you added the current world champion, the Burj Khalifa, to the mix, see below:

For every action

Original post:  May 14, 2015

In life, there may not be equal and opposite reactions for every action that we take. There are, however, consequences for each decision that we do or do not make.

This morning, I was filled with despair when I looked at my yard. This is a picture of just a small area.

Wide swaths of turf were torn up. Huge patches of bare dirt stared back at me. I slowly realized that they had returned.

I have a murder of crows that haunts our neighborhood. They are very smart. Two years ago, they realized that I was the only lawn on the street that didn't have chemical enhancement. They also saw that the grubs seemed to like my lawn. I had been purposely avoiding laying down any type of insecticide because my boys liked to play in the lawn. The grubs have been especially bad recently and you could see patches where they have nibbled away all the roots. Long story short, they have attacked any area in the lawn showing the slightest hint of activity in search of a tasty morsel.

It's ironic that my attempt to take a temporary break to keep my boys a little healthier backfired so spectacularly. While I'm disappointed, at least there is a remedy.

I've never really wanted a showcase lawn. Unfortunately, I will have to break down now and get the grub killer. It will be the only way to keep the crows away. I set to work raking and re-seeding. We'll start the cycle again.

I wonder what the next chain of events will bring.

Seeing from another point of view

Have you ever played the word game Boggle? There are between 16 and 25 cubes with letters on all sides. You score points by coming up with words. Longer words count for more points. The catch is that any word found by other players doesn't count. It pays to be unique. It also pays to find the harder, longer words.

Players generally sit opposite from each other. With more than two players, each player gets oriented to a specific side of the board. A sample is shown here:

You could imagine four players with each sitting at a point on the compass:  north, south, east, and west.

Whenever I've played, I always find that for some reason it is much easier to visualize certain words in your head if they are closer to your side or if they are oriented so that they are "upright" in your direction. As shown, this would be your view if you were playing from the "south" position. Here is how it might look if you were across from this player:

Which view do you find easier? Do you notice that there are different words that seem to jump out at you.

Sometimes, it takes a different perspective to see the answers. Nothing about the board changed except your view!

By the way, I do see a few six-letter words (spiker, thrips, traits). 3 points each (but only if you didn't find them, too).

Natural wonder

Original post:  May 8, 2015

On a recent trip, we were able to witness something amazing. Under the Waugh bridge, there is a colony of 250,000 Mexican free-tailed bats. Unlike most of the other bat colonies in the area, they live year-round in Houston. Every day at dusk, they sweep out into the night in search of prey. For more detailed information from the web page, click on the photo below.

I caught a little of the action on video. Surprisingly, it took several minutes for all of the bats to soar away!

Slo-mo:

Full speed:

Living vicariously

Original post:  May 7, 2015

In my career, I haven't really had direct reports or huge budgets. Most of the time, I've had to work indirectly. That requires a great deal of persuasion since what you are selling are things that no one can touch. You are trying to make someone else understand an idea. More than that, you need them to believe in the vision to the point where they will actually help you even though it may not necessarily be something that falls directly under their responsibility.

There is no more delicious moment to me than when you see proof of your influence reflected in real life. For me, it can come in subtle ways. I might phrase something in a certain way and hear it repeated back in the same way weeks or months later. Someone might take a slide that I developed for a presentation and drop it into their deck. Little projects that no one thought they needed might blossom into larger projects. I'm at a point in my career when I can actually see the tiny shoots just emerging from the ground. They may not be strong enough to stand on their own yet, but perhaps in a few years they will be. I can't tell you how wonderful it feels to see that happen in real time.

I guess it reminds me of my other life outside of work. My boys are starting to get older. My oldest is now in Little League and loves playing baseball. I felt mixed emotions when I learned he struck out the side while pitching in a game earlier this week that I missed because of a business trip. All the same, the pride is still there. Even though I am not on the field with him, I can feel the joys and sorrows as they happen. When I stand on the sidelines, all I can do is watch and hope. It's the same way with a lot of my ideas. They are riding on the efforts of so many unseen individuals. I can only hope that we've given them enough guidance so that their natural talents can shine.

Three slides from Ian Morrison

Original post:  May 6, 2015

Ian Morrison is a healthcare "futurist" who was the keynote speaker yesterday at the GHX Supply Chain Summit in Phoenix. He discussed some of his ideas for the "Innovation Imperative". In his opinion, healthcare really needs to transform itself in order to survive. He pointed out the many ways that various health systems across the country are attempting to address the issue. I thought these three slides were interesting.

The first bullet point discussed the "trajectory of silicon". As computing power continues to develop at the exponential rate predicted by Moore's Law, it becomes possible to harness increasing amounts of data to apply towards many new solutions that could not have existed before. Many potential innovations yet to be developed will require us to come up with novel ways to apply the power of data.

I found the "Scout Badge" problem to be an elegant way to describe some innovation efforts. It's a proxy for labels that allow you to say "me too" without any truly meaningful, lasting results behind the programs represented on the page.

Mr. Morrison went on to discuss the problem of a disproportionate share of spending going towards the sickest patients. These efforts are often aimed at patients in their last days with no real impact on their lifespan or quality of life.

Earlier, he had referenced a program by Wal-Mart which will send associates in need of specific surgeries to designated centers of excellence around the country. Special teams dedicated to these efforts examine the patients and perform the procedures. In an article by Atul Gawande in the New Yorker, Morrison cited the fact that 30-50% of the time, the patient is sent home without having the surgery.  It's possible that there could be much more reduction over time with careful application of these types of principles.

He also gave two innovative examples of addressing major issues. Emergency rooms are often plagued by repeat visitors who are treated over and over again at high cost. In one example (the truck), the hospital was able to have an agent drive out to visit the families of the worst offenders and explain the treatment and the necessary measures to manage the patient's condition. It dramatically reduced the readmission rate. In the refrigerator, there was an elderly diabetic patient who was not taking her medication and came back again and again to the ER for treatment. At one point, they confronted the patient and asked why she wasn't taking her medications. She told them that the shots had to be refrigerated and she didn't have one. They bought one for her and she did not return due to diabetic complications!

Dietary dilemma

Original post:  May 5, 2015

Food is critical to life. Understanding which foods to eat and which to avoid can be maddeningly contradictory. On the one hand, the headlines are filled with the latest findings of studies claiming some benefit or another from the latest wonder food. On the other, there are equally powerful voices clamoring for the public to stop "poisoning" themselves with some other demon of the day. Given some undeniable trends in our society (like the proliferation of the population with issues on either end of the weight spectrum), it must be tempting to throw our hands up in the air and discount all of it.

With that as background, it is important for us to keep challenging the status quo and the received wisdom. When I was growing up, everyone knew that cholesterol was bad for you. Fat was a major enemy and entire lines of foods sprang up from nowhere (Snackwells, anyone?) to save us from this evil. We also thought that butter, which is loaded with fat, should be replaced in a healthy diet by margarine. We didn't know it at the time, but the enormous amounts of sugar in the fat-free foods combined with the trans-fats in the margarine were probably causing far more issues than what they were replacing!

The truth is that science is messy. But changing current behavior based on counter-intuitive ideas backed by scientific evidence is likely our best bet. While it may not mean that we will all live to 100 if we follow these new guidelines, it may mean that we can eat with a little less guilt and fear.

Here is an article from the Washington Post that attempts to bring the latest update to the debate:  7 of the biggest ‘facts’ about unhealthy food that actually aren’t true - The Washington Post

It discusses Chipotle's recent announcement discontinuing the use of GMO foods at its restaurants. The article goes on to say:

But Chipotle's feat is also remarkable because it relies on a misconception we have about foods, and, often nutrition science more generally. We assume that there is always an established, actionable consensus understanding of whether certain foods and ingredients should or shouldn't be eaten. But when it comes to many of the most popular "facts" spread vigorously today, the truth is actually a good deal less clear.

I'll list the seven facts. You'll have to read the article from the link to find out why they are all considered myths now.

1. Genetically modified organisms are not safe to eat, and we should avoid them.
2. Aspartame causes cancer or, at the very least, is definitely bad for us.
3. We eat too much salt.
4. Cholesterol is bad for you.
5. MSG is a "silent killer lurking in your cabinets".
6. Gluten is something we should stop eating.
7. High fructose corn syrup is worse than sugar.

Bose would not be happy

Original post:  May 4, 2015

I was on a flight yesterday, so I can relate to this new development. Wired featured a story that could be helpful to most travelers. One of the more annoying features of flying is the constant roar of the plane hurtling through the air. Depending on the type of plane you are flying, the noise can be increasingly distracting. But hope lies on the horizon:

A team of researchers from North Carolina State University and MIT have designed a lightweight membrane—in its current form, basically a 0.25 millimeter-thick sheet of latex—to cover one side of the lightweight honeycomb structure that is used to build airplanes and helicopters.

The sheet is stretched over one side of the honeycomb matrix like a drum. When low-frequency sound waves (like those from an aircraft engine, say) hit it, they bounce off, dramatically reducing the effect of the engines on passengers. “At low frequencies” [below 500 Hertz], says Yun Jing, lead author of the paper and a professor at NC State, “the honeycomb panel with the membrane blocks 100 to 1,000 times more sound energy than the panel without a membrane.”

Their research shows low frequency sounds transmitted through the fuselage into the cabin can be reduced as much as 30dB1, a significant amount considering that decibels measure logarithmically, while increasing the weight of the honeycomb structure by approximately 6 percent—a key consideration, because airlines are fanatical about weight. The noise reduction benefits decrease significantly at higher frequencies, limiting its use to low frequency noise like engine drone.

Even better, the membrane could, in theory, be applied to existing airframes!

For frequent travelers, this could be quite a benefit. Of course, it may also reduce the need for $300 Bose noise-cancelling headphones....

Here is the link to the full article:  How a Latex Membrane Could Deliver Quieter Airline Flights | WIRED