Triumph of the curious

This article in the Ringer analyzes the path Theo Epstein took to guide the Cubs to their first World Series victory in 108 years. He led a revolution of the "curious" over the incurious. His easy challenge to the status quo helped solidify the value of intelligently applied advanced analytics in baseball.

Data can be powerful, but it also needs to be harnessed carefully.

Here is a link to the article:

https://theringer.com/2016-world-series-chicago-cubs-theo-epstein-analytics-war-9f1248c44eb7#.fw8ba92p0

A personal theory of relativity

In many ways, we have a way of adapting our internal frame of reference. Instead of conforming to some objective reality, we often will try to place ourselves into the reference and determine how something might seem to us.

Considering my own personal experience, I think that this is true. When we've gone on walks, I might consider two miles to be a relative stroll while my son (who strides at half my pace) may consider it an endless march!

This article from Science of Us discusses how baseball players differ in the ways that they personally perceive a pitch. To a good hitter, the ball can seem much larger than to someone who struggles to put the ball in play. The ball itself doesn't change--it's only our perception of it that does!

For a 2005 paper, research psychologists Jessica Witt and Dennis Proffitt set up a table beside a softball game in Charlottesville, Virginia, the home of their school, the University of Virginia. For a free sports drink, ballplayers — 47 in all — were asked to partake in a brief psychology experiment. They were shown a poster with eight black circles on it, ranging from 9 centimeters to 11.8 centimeters in diameter. They were then asked to pick which circle corresponded the best with the actual size of a softball, which measures 10 centimeters. After selecting their circle, they reported their stats: at bats, hits, walks, and the like. The result: The better they hit, the bigger circle they selected. “If you’re hitting well the ball looks bigger, and if the ball looks bigger, you’re going to hit better,” Proffitt tells Science of Us. “What that suggests is that there is a reciprocal relationship between the perceived size and how well you’re going to do, and how well you do is going to be reflected in how big you perceive the object.”

I learned a new concept:  affordance.

While we walk around with the common-sense assumption that everybody sees the same objective reality, Proffitt says that nobody sees the same reality. The geometry your brain takes in isn’t the “disembodied” geometry of yardsticks, meters, and inches, which mean a lot in the abstractions of engineering or physics or math, but the “embodied” geometry of your physical form: The most accurate measurement, to an individual, is the most personal. That a basketball hoop is ten feet high means something very different to you if you’re five feet or seven feet tall. While hoops and goals and roads have objective qualities, what we see and perceive is profoundly shaped by the subjective — by your ability to interact with them. The research backs this up: Golfers who are putting well see holes as bigger; football placekickers who score more field goals see the uprights as wider and the crossbar lower; successful dart throwers recall targets being larger. 
....
In psychology, this dynamic between an object and the things you can do with an object is called an “affordance,” coined by Cornell University psychologist and James J. Gibson, who is something of a Martin Luther–type figure in the study of visual perception. To Gibson, an affordance is the way an object and a subject fit together. “We call it a seat in general, or a stool, bench, chair, and so on, in particular,” Gibson wrote in The Ecological Approach to Visual Perception. It can be natural like a ledge or rock or artificial, like a couch or a bleacher. “The color and texture of the surface are irrelevant,” he continues. “Knee-high for a child is not the same as knee-high for an adult, so the affordance is relative to the size of the individual. But if a surface is horizontal, flat, extended, rigid, and knee-high relative to a perceiver, it can in fact be sat upon.” Regardless of what the object is, if it fits a sittable set of qualities, then you can take a seat. It affords that to you.

The article goes on to talk about how the best players are actually using pattern recognition to determine which pitches are the best to swing at.

I like the idea that the world conforms to our personal experience of it. I think that must be true because I find it difficult to imagine that we could all perceive things in exactly the same manner.

Here is a link to the full article:  The Science of How Baseball Players Hit Fastballs

World's largest game of catch

On Sunday, September 4, 2016, we went to the Pawtucket Red Sox game. While the PawSox won the game, it was a relatively dull 1-0 game. The only run scored on a failed pickoff attempt in the first inning that went to centerfield and allowed the runner to race home from 2nd base! Justin Haley starred for the PawSox. He struck out seven and only walked one. He carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning, but lost it when a ball hit his leg and rolled behind the mound too far for him to throw out the runner at first.

After the game, we attempted to set a world record for the world's largest game of catch. The previous record had been 1,058 set in Cincinnati. We ended up with 1,133 people!

Over the Monster article
ABC news link Providence

Here are some photos and quick video from the event:

Sandwich Blast 2016

Over the past weekend, I got to spend a lot of quality time with Older Brother (OB). He participated in a baseball tournament held in Sandwich. We stayed at a nearby Cape Cod town of Hyannis (ancient home of the Kennedy clan). I learned a lot about my son over the course of these few days.

OB continues to mature as an athlete. Summer ball has been a bit of a transition for him. He started out as just one of the boys (instead of as an alpha dog). On the ride down to the Cape, I remarked that his team had inherited three of the better players who had been on the opposing town team the previous summer. He agreed, but grumbled that it was forcing him to the bench more often. (There are 12 kids on the team and only nine can start so the boys compete for playing time). We laughed and I told him that he simply had to raise his game! Of course, this is easier said than done.

In anticipation of this higher level of competition, we had taken some steps to prepare. Over the winter, I signed him up with one of the high school coaches for some extra batting instruction. OB has always felt that his hitting is the weakest part of his game. I watch his sweet swing and disagree, but given his early struggles in spring ball it would be hard to dispute the evidence.

At the start of summer ball, OB was generally batting somewhere between seventh and ninth. In the past few weeks, he has grown increasingly comfortable with facing the more talented pitchers. He was starting to make pitchers work really hard and was putting the ball in play with solid contact. While he was the victim of some bad breaks (some of the hardest balls he hit were right to outfielders who made the catches for outs), I reminded him that baseball rewards consistency and over time his luck would change.

I was as surprised as anyone when we got to the first game on Friday night and OB was batting third! He would later tell me that he was nervous and preferred to bat lower in the order. I let him know that he should welcome the pressure. He was given the opportunity because he is talented. If he can trust in his ability and allow himself to perform as he knows he can, he will be able to succeed.

Well, he struck out in his first at bat. He would soon learn that he had to get more aggressive. He did better in his second at bat. He hit it to third and beat the throw for an infield single. He would go on to draw a crucial walk in his third at bat that helped trigger the winning rally. He would end up scoring as the team would go on to a taut 2-0 win.

It was late by the time we got back to the hotel. Flush with smiles from the thrilling victory, we celebrated with some homemade ice cream. Looking over the many flavors, he looked past the standard vanilla and chocolate (“you can get that anywhere”) and opted for the “secret recipe” of Cape Cod Sand. If I had to guess, it was some combination of vanilla, caramel, butterscotch and something else to give it the sandy texture. It was also delicious! It was a decision his mother would have made and it gave me another reason to smile as we walked home and fell into bed.

One of my last memories of the day was looking over as OB crawled under the sheets. He was clutching his old friend, Wally the Walrus. It was a touching moment. It was also a sad reminder that these days are passing way too quickly.

Saturday morning brought a new opponent. OB again struck out in his first at-bat. He was nearly in tears. Since the field had no defined dugout or real separation from the kids, he walked over shortly after that and sat next to me with his puffy eyes to get a cold Gatorade. I asked him why he was so upset and he complained that the first two strikes were at his shoulders and the last one was about a foot outside of the plate. I told him I agreed, but that he had to adjust to the way the ump was calling the game. He again improved and got another walk and flicked a nice single out to left field. The team ended up winning by more than ten runs and invoking the mercy rule.

We had a six hour break before our next game. We went back to the hotel and changed. OB decided he didn’t want to swim so we walked to the arcade on Main Street. After some light fun, we decided to grab lunch near the ice cream shop we had been to last night. It was a fairly fancy Italian restaurant. Since OB can eat a fair amount of food, we both ordered off the regular menu. He originally thought about a Caesar salad, but I convinced him to try something else. I talked him into his mom’s favorite—pappardelle. This version had short rib in it. I had gnocchi. They were both quite good! Later, we split the Cape Cod Mud and Lavender Honeycomb. OB was impressed because the latter choice tasted exactly like it smelled!

The late game was another tense affair. We started off well and then fell behind. OB got a nice double and a single and played well in the field. We ended up with a tight win.

That evening, we decided to join the team for pizza at the hotel pool. It was a chaotic scene. OB had some fun, but as time wore on I saw him shying away from the centralized scrum of boys fighting over the football in the middle of the pool. I walked up to him and he shared that he didn’t feel comfortable roughhousing with the rest of the boys. I told him I understood. After about an hour or so, he climbed out of the pool and asked to go back to the room to get some rest.

Sunday morning brought the first round of the elimination portion of the tournament. The first three games were only for seeding purposes. At this point, any loss would end our run. To my pleasant surprise, OB was scheduled to lead off the first game. His first inning went 1-2-3 with two strikeouts. His first at-bat also was a solid single to left. By the end of the first inning, we were up 6-0. In the second inning, the first batter grounded to third and the throw to first went over the fielder’s head for an error. After two passed balls, the runner was now on 3^rd. The next batter hit a pop fly to the outfield. The center fielder wandered over to where it would land and stuck out his glove. Unfortunately, it popped out and a run scored. Through it all, OB maintained his composure and never lost his cool (even though he was seething inside). I have to say that he’s really improved in his ability to manage his emotions.

OB settled down and was able to get out of the inning with no further damage. Because it was a hot day, coach went with another pitcher. We would go on to win 13-3 after four innings (mercy). With two hits and a walk as well as two solid innings, OB won the “star of the game” award. This had been one of his goals for the weekend, so he was quite pleased and proud.

The next game was against Canton. We had just played them in the late game on Saturday. We had also played them twice in a tournament about three weeks prior. That familiarity would add to the overall difficulty.

One of our aces started the game. He had pitched brilliantly on Friday night. Against Canton, he would not do quite as well. The leadoff batter started off with an infield single. The next batter struck out on a wicked changeup that seemed like it was on a string. The third batter then hit a rocket to the gap for a double that scored a run. That was followed by another solid single and then another double. Before we knew it, we were down 3-0. Even worse, the batter on second was actively yelling out “changeup” to the batter when he was down 0-2. As I said earlier, Canton had learned from their previous battles with us! We eventually got out of the inning, but it was fairly somber in our dugout.

OB was batting second. The leadoff batter was able to get on base. He lofted a nice ball to left center that fell in for a double. He was followed by another double and now we were in business. We would score three to even the score. It was now a five inning game.

There was no score in the second. In the top of the third, our ace walked a batter. A sacrifice and a groundout would move him to third. The next batter hit a lazy fly to right center. There were two boys there, but they both hesitated as it started to come down. It fell between them for an error and gave up a critical run. It didn’t help that we went down meekly in the bottom half of the frame.

We brought in our second ace to start the fourth. He throws really hard and started out by striking out the side. In the bottom of the fourth, we pushed a run across. OB drew a walk and the batter after him did as well. The bases were loaded and one of our better hitters was up with two outs. During the at-bat, a wild pitch eluded the catcher. Our fastest player was on third and he darted home. He was so fast, he scored standing up—or so we thought. In Little League, there is a rule that if there is a play at the plate, you have to slide. Since he did not, he was automatically out and it snuffed out our rally.

We thought we had their pitcher on the ropes, but we just could not come up with the timely hit. After holding them scoreless in the fifth and the sixth, OB came up in the bottom of the sixth with the go-ahead run on first. He flared one out just past first base, but the fielder made a nice catch backing up to get him. We got the runner to second, but couldn’t score. The game would go into extra innings.

In the seventh, our luck ran out. The fireballer who struck out the side was running out of gas. He gave up a single and then a long double followed. The lead runner ran for home. The relay home was just a bit too late and we were now down 5-4. Later in the inning, runners would get to second and third. With two outs, the batter hit a grounder to short which looked like a sure out. Unfortunately, a bad throw allowed two more runs to score.

Canton had thrown the same pitcher for all six innings (!). They switched pitchers. It didn’t help us. We went down 1-2-3 and our tournament was over.

OB was sad. To be honest, I was, too. By all rights, our team should have won the game. We also have lots of good pitchers on the team and could possibly have won our next two games and the tournament. The ride home was mostly silent. I know from experience that I just need to give him space and time to sort out his feelings. We wouldn’t really end up talking about any of the games until the next day or so. Even though he doesn't usually fall asleep in the car, I could see in the rear view mirror that he was exhausted and he dozed off for much of the ride.

All in all, I am extremely proud of the progress OB has made over the course of this year. He stayed in second or third position for the entire weekend. He even spent time at shortstop instead of second base. He told me he doesn't like the added responsibility, but I think he secretly does like leading.  I’ll be sure to keep you posted as he continues his baseball journey.

Cardiac Cubs

Original post:  June 12, 2015

My boy plays Little League. His team, the Cubs, is a mixed group of 9 - 11 year olds. They played the semifinal last night against the Red Sox and it was a nail-biter.

The lead kept shifting back and forth between the teams. They play six innings and my son was scheduled to pitch the last three. In the top of the fifth with a 8-6 lead, a combination of hits and errors led to three Sox runs and a 9-8 deficit.

In the bottom of the fifth, the Cubs were able to mount a rally. The tying run came across the plate. My son came up to bat with two outs and runners on second and third. I was secretly hoping he could get a hit here so we could take the lead. He took a close pitch on the outside corner for strike two. On the next pitch, he grimaced as it hit in almost the exact same location and he was called out on strikes.

Trying to be the supportive dad, I went up to him and told him he had to have a short memory. He just needed to shut the other team out and his team would have a chance to win in the bottom of the inning.

The leadoff batter for the Sox worked the count full. He hit a hard shot directly to the shortstop. Initially, it looked like an easy play, but the ball took a bad hop. After a quick bobble, the shortstop fired to first but not in time. The lead runner was on. He would go on to take second on a passed ball. To make matters worse, the next batter drew a walk. Another passed ball and they scooted over to second and third with nobody out. Things were looking grim for the Cubs.

My son now became quite deliberate on the mound. He was able to get the first batter with a swinging strike three. After another tough at-bat, he got the second batter on a swinging strike three. Another batter came up and again he was able to get the crucial strikeout. The go-ahead run was stranded on third.

In the bottom of the inning, the Cubs were able to push across the winning run with two outs. It was quite an amazing game.

The Cubs' coach treated the kids to ice cream after the game. I think he's done an incredible job. There are no superstars or physical giants on the team. The boys seem to genuinely like each other and play well together. Of course, winning doesn't hurt. All the same, I know that these are some of those little moments that will live on for a long time to come.

Regression to the mean

Original post:  May 20, 2015

Part of the human experience is learning to deal with frustration and disappointment. It's true at work and it's true in our home lives as well.

My son is in his first year of kid-pitched baseball. He can get quite competitive (don't know where he gets that from). His team, the Cubs, is scheduled to play 14 games in total before the playoffs. They started off on an incredible run. They were 7-0-1 heading into this week's games. Yes, there are ties at his age.

On Monday, they started off poorly. They only play six innings. The teams can only score a maximum of five runs in the first five frames. The Cubs gave up the maximum ten runs in the first two innings--largely because their fielding is atrocious. While they battled back to tie the game, they ended up losing 16-14. It was not a winning result and the kids were disappointed. With the short season, they played again last night (Tuesday).

Unfortunately for the boys, their poor play carried over into this game as well. Their opponent, the Rockies, are the best hitting and highest scoring team in the league. They punished the Cubs. To be honest, I didn't appreciate the opposing coach calling for steals while up ten runs, but that's for another story. Worse still, my boy was frustrated by both the solid hitting of the other team and the many poor plays by his own team members. Simple plays which could have helped the team get out of the inning turned into comical errors and runs for the other side.

I was not happy to see my boy stomping around and glaring at his teammates. After the game, he was in a foul mood and filled with tears. He did not want to talk about the game. I made him a deal. We could go for frozen yogurt (one of his favorites) if we could sit and talk calmly.

Once he had cooled down, he started digging into his mounded bowl and we talked. We reviewed his performance and talked about what we might do differently next time. He agreed that as a pitcher, he couldn't control the actions of his fielders. We'd work on improving his pitching, but there were two immediate things he could do to help his team. First, he could anticipate where the plays would occur and back up his teammates. If a ball was overthrown, he could support his fellow players and possibly prevent further damage. Second, he had to stop with the tantrums. All of his demonstrations would only serve to upset his teammates further. Additionally, his raging would take away from his own performance since he would lose control of his pitching. He knew that his pitching angry made him perform worse. He could be upset, but he had to keep it inside and not take it out on others or let the other team know it was affecting his game.

We both vowed to leave the negatives inside the building and forget about it leading out the door.

I also couldn't help myself. I had to explain to him the fancy concept of "regression to the mean". I don't expect him to remember it, but baseball does help teach the concept well. Hot streaks and luck play a major role, but teams usually find their talent level over the course of the season. I'm sure we'll keep coming back to the same lesson. Hopefully, it will help him later in life. You never know what sticks and what doesn't.

Expect the unexpected

Original post:  Oct 25, 2012

Why don't things work out the way that I planned?

In my mind, everything just seems to resolve itself. I am always capable of that maximum effort. All of the project deliverables are completed perfectly and on time. Every team member outperforms expectations and we come in under budget and exceed our original projections.

Unfortunately, real life often falls well short of those meticulous plans. A missed meeting here, a minor setback there and soon the whole enterprise seems to border on chaos.

Some recent project work has run into unanticipated hurdles. Some of them were due to the ambitious and aggressive timelines set. Others were the result of quirks in the system that we had yet to encounter. Still others are the natural result of trying to gain familiarity with something new and different. It takes some time to learn how a system operates and to adapt your own processes to fit.

I was watching the World Series last night. I had expected a tight, well-pitched ballgame. When I turned it on, it was only the third inning. Justin Verlander, widely considered one of the best pitchers in baseball, had given up a run in the first but it was still a taut affair. He threw a well-placed pitch that was chopped over to third base. It looked like it would be a routine groundout that would only be close because of the speed of the batter. All of a sudden, the game took a most unexpected turn.

Instead of bouncing up into the third baseman's glove, the ball glanced off the third base bag and caromed off into left field. The runner alertly kept going for the softest hit double you will ever see. Verlander would have to face at least one more batter. Marco Scutaro then put up a terrific fight and lined the ninth pitch of the at-bat into center field to score a run. Pablo Sandoval followed that up with a home run.

In what seemed to be the blink of an eye, you could argue that one bad break ended up changing the entire course of the game. If the runner is thrown out (as would likely happen 99 times out of 100), the inning is over and it is possible that none of these later events occur. But it did and they did and there you have it.

I wonder what twists turns are in our own futures.