Truth hurts

Original post:  Dec 14, 2015

During the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas, it's traditional for the houses on my block to light their houses with elaborate displays. Some have simple candles in each window. Others have strings white lights wrapped around poles or lining the sides of the houses. Still others have multiple colors in their trees and bushes and all kinds of other attractions.

We've been quite busy the past few weekends, so our house had not yet been decorated. As I was in the yard, our neighbor from across the street came rolling by. The four-year-old pedaled her Big Wheel up to me and said, "My mommy said your house looks sad."

I could only laugh because I had to agree with her!

Children do say the darndest things.

The equation keeps changing

Original post:  Dec 3, 2015

In Paris, the COP21 climate conference is currently underway. Heads of state from 150 countries around the globe are meeting to discuss what the world can do to help mitigate the potentially dangerous consequences of climate change.

This is not the first attempt, but it may be the first one to achieve lasting commitments. Worldwide, there seems to be a growing awareness of the issue and a growing consensus that some changes need to take place. What makes these talks very different from previous conferences is the sudden growth of alternative energy as an actual substitute for fossil fuels.

In this chart based on official information from the Department of Energy, you can see the electricity produced by land-based wind is actually less expensive than new coal power plants!

How did solar and wind energy costs drop so quickly? Here are some explanations.

Let’s start with wind. Two main forces have driven the price of wind in the past five years, MacDonald said. First, she said, it’s cheaper to produce wind turbines than ever before. Second, wind turbines are much more efficient than they used to be.

....

But the falling cost of turbines is not the only factor driving down the price of wind. Manufacturers have also gotten better at making individual turbines produce more energy. Wind turbines can now be mounted higher, so they reach more powerful breezes; and their rotors can be bigger, so they capture more air. Utilities have also gotten better at deciding where to place turbines, and they’re more reliable, so they don’t break down as often.

Back to that car-market comparison. MacDonald seemed to understand these many improvements to turbines as amounting to an almost fundamentally different machine. Today’s car market, she said, “is not just about producing a 1920s car more cheaply. When you think about a 1920s car versus a car today, the performance has improved dramatically.”

Solar had a slightly different path:

Solar is a different story. “It’s pretty simple—it’s all about the experience curve. The more of something we do, the better we get at it,” said Jenny Chase, the head of solar at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, in an email.

“Loads of solar got installed in Europe from 2004 to 2008 in response to German and Spanish incentives, meaning it was finally worth building big specialized solar module factories (mostly in China),” she said. “The manufacturers pushed down cost by making the wafers thinner, by optimizing the structure of the cells to get more efficiency (i.e. more energy output for the same area), by reducing the use of silver paste and other expensive components, and all the other ways scale can be reduced.”

....

As with wind, smaller improvements have also brought down the price of solar. In particular, Chase highlighted the falling cost of inverters, which convert the direct current produced by photovoltaic cells into the alternating current used by the electrical grid. She also told me that contractors have gotten much more efficient at installing solar panels: “Installers have trained their roofers to build residential photovoltaic systems in one hour, not one day, and got better at sending out teams with everything they need so they don't have to waste any time.”

If the world can sustain investment into continuous improvement in solar and wind while also addressing some of the storage issues, suddenly there are ways to address climate change that may not bankrupt us.

It will be fascinating to watch for the outcome of the summit. Perhaps we can look back and see that this was the real start of a new energy revolution.

Here is the link to the full article:  How Solar and Wind Got So Cheap, So Fast - The Atlantic

Marketing nostalgia

Original post:  Dec 2, 2015

Several years ago, I remember my reluctance at giving up my BlackBerry. What I missed most about it was my ability to thumb type. Over the years that I had the device, I was able to knock out quite a few lengthy e-mails with only two fingers. It took me some time to gain proficiency with the virtual keyboard on the iPhone. To this day, I don't think I can type as fast on a phone as I was able to on a BlackBerry. That said, the overall experience in most other areas is so much superior that I don't think I could ever go back.

BlackBerry is struggling as a company. They were too slow to realize the threat until their moment had passed entirely. They are now left with one desperate strategy:  nostalgia.

Having tried (and failed) at competing with copycat models, they are now marketing a smartphone with a keyboard.

Nostalgia is a powerful force. It evokes memories of how we used to be. For some of us of a certain vintage, it can remind us of less complicated times from younger days. If it's used well, it can make the retrograde version seem "cool" again. Think of all of the recent revivals of kitchen gadgets or fashion accessories that slide back into popularity with increasing regularity. It is rapidly making its way into technology. From an article on the Verge, here is a scientific explanation:

This nostalgic reaction to an old technology feature that most people no longer use is real. And so is the emotion driving it. "People have nostalgia for lots of things, including their gizmos," says Dr. David Linden, a professor of neuroscience at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine and author of Touch: The Science of Hand, Heart, and Mind.

Linden says that some memories are written more strongly into the brain’s circuitry, like memories tied to emotions and memories for things that we hold every day for years — including gadgets. "Talk to orchestra musicians and they’ll give emotional descriptions of the cello they wrap their arms around, or the flute that they put to their lips," he says.

It might be BlackBerry last, best chance:

Contrast Apple’s subtle nod to its history with the BlackBerry Priv’s physical keyboard: the Finder isn’t driving Mac sales, while BlackBerry’s physical keyboard could be the single reason a person buys the new Priv. Apple can wink at users who are old enough to remember the original Finder, but BlackBerry may need this throwback feature to stay in the game. The Priv’s keyboard works as you might expect a tactile keyboard to work, but it also functions like a mini trackpad, letting you glide your fingers over its keys to control a cursor, making more precise on-screen selections. "We look to the past to modernize elements that created emotion before," says Scott Wenger, BlackBerry’s global head of design.

Here is the link to the full article:  Why BlackBerry is still betting on the keyboard | The Verge

Even mighty Amazon

Original post:  Dec 1, 2015

Last night, I tried to purchase some presents for my son's upcoming birthday. My timing could have been better. Yesterday was the online event commonly known as "Cyber Monday." The items I needed were available on Amazon. I went through the prompts but noticed that it wasn't allowing me the standard two-day shipping. I was unable to place the order. Perhaps it was due to the massive volume of others all trying to place orders at the same time.

Since I wasn't in a mad rush for the item (his birthday is this weekend), I decided to wait until this morning to place the order. Sure enough, it flew through.

I think it goes to show you that even mighty Amazon sometimes runs into issues with its technology!

Bonus fun fact:  while it may seem that Cyber Monday has always been around, it actually was invented a mere ten years ago by the National Retail Federation. Fast Company has an article discussing the origins:  How Cyber Monday Was Born

Here is an excerpt from that article:

A decade ago, during the happy years before the recession, retailers noticed a spike in online sales the Monday after Thanksgiving. In a stroke of marketing genius, theNational Retail Federation decided to make the it an official shopping day. In a small room in the NRF's Washington, D.C. office, Ellen Davis, then a mid-twenties executive on the PR team, coined the term "Cyber Monday." "It's a random bit of cocktail party conversation I like to bring up sometimes," Davis says. "It's surreal to think that I'm associated with a term that has taken off like this."

And taken off, it has: Americans are increasingly spending more money on Cyber Monday than during Thanksgiving or Black Friday. Over the last two years, in fact, they've spent more on Cyber Monday than on Thanksgiving and Black Friday combined. Today is expected to be the biggest shopping day of all time, with predicted sales of over $3 billion.

....

Davis and her team were tasked with come up with a term to easily describe this shift in behavior. There were other phrases that didn't make the cut. They considered calling it Black Monday, in keeping with the Black Friday theme. "But that was also what we call the greatest stock market crash of all time," Davis points out. Also in the running: Blue Monday, after the color of hyperlinks, or Green Monday, because, well, money is green. "I liked the idea of Cyber Monday because it clearly described what was going on," she says. "Also, if you did a search for the term 'Cyber Monday' in 2005, you got zero results."

The name stuck. The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and the rest of the media picked up the term. "We spoke the word into existence and we really haven't been able to escape it since," Davis says. "It took off so fast that I don't really feel a sense of ownership over the term. The media, the retail industry, and consumers have really embraced it."

Sailing....takes me away

I recently learned that a colleague who I have known for many years will be leaving the company. It's not because he was the latest victim of a numbers game. Rather, it was because he decided that he had acquired enough toys and was willing to walk away. He plans to spend a few years on his fifty foot boat wandering where the wind and tides decide to take him.

I didn't get a chance to see him prior to learning about his fate. I can't even say that we're close friends. That said, I have nothing but respect for his decision. I think we all secretly wish we could just jettison all of our cares and set off in a different direction. He's actually doing it!

I must say that he leaves an enormous void in our organization. He had deep knowledge of our systems and people. He knew how to navigate in a very complex organization. There's something to be said for understanding the culture of any company. Each one is a different ecosystem and even someone with superstar potential can be swallowed up by a gulf in their understanding of their new environment.

I wish him nothing but smooth sailing in the days ahead. Hopefully, we can all follow in his footsteps on our own timetables.

Choosing gratitude

Original post:  Nov 23, 2015

Life continually presents us with moments that can cause serious uncertainty. All around us, there are reports of chaos and mayhem. It seems that there are threats and disruptions everywhere. It sometimes feels as if there is a global conspiracy to put everyone on edge at all times.

As we were driving home, I had the radio on and there were reports on the attacks in Paris. My son asked me why it always seemed as if there were only reports on bad things happening. I struggled with a response about how it's easier for people to pay attention to the one bad thing that happens as opposed to the 99 good things that happen. Still, it felt unsatisfying.

One mantra that I try to live by is that you find what you are looking for. I suppose it's another version of the "glass half full" view of life. Instead of allowing the negativity of the moment to overwhelm me, I'm hoping to place the emphasis on the many bountiful blessings in my life.

In Sunday's New York Times, there was an op-ed entitled "Choose To Be Grateful. It Will Make You Happier." I thought I would share that as we prepare in the United States to celebrate Thanksgiving. The author points to some scientific evidence behind this type of an approach.

But we are more than slaves to our feelings, circumstances and genes. Evidence suggests that we can actively choose to practice gratitude — and that doing so raises our happiness.

This is not just self-improvement hokum. For example, researchers in one 2003 study randomly assigned one group of study participants to keep a short weekly list of the things they were grateful for, while other groups listed hassles or neutral events. Ten weeks later, the first group enjoyed significantly greater life satisfaction than the others. Other studies have shown the same pattern and lead to the same conclusion. If you want a truly happy holiday, choose to keep the “thanks” in Thanksgiving, whether you feel like it or not.

How does all this work? One explanation is that acting happy, regardless of feelings, coaxes one’s brain into processing positive emotions. In one famous 1993 experiment, researchers asked human subjects to smile forcibly for 20 seconds while tensing facial muscles, notably the muscles around the eyes called the orbicularis oculi (which create “crow’s feet”). They found that this action stimulated brain activity associated with positive emotions.

There are other positive benefits that can accrue as well:

In addition to building our own happiness, choosing gratitude can also bring out the best in those around us. Researchers at the University of Southern California showed this in a 2011 study of people with high power but low emotional security (think of the worst boss you’ve ever had). The research demonstrated that when their competence was questioned, the subjects tended to lash out with aggression and personal denigration. When shown gratitude, however, they reduced the bad behavior. That is, the best way to disarm an angry interlocutor is with a warm “thank you.”

The article goes on to include some ways to incorporate this spirit into your daily routine.

I'm sure that there are co-workers and family that deserve your thanks. Over the course of this week, take a moment to let them know that you are grateful. I'm sure they will appreciate it.

Here is another link to the full article:  http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/22/opinion/sunday/choose-to-be-grateful-it-will-make-you-happier.html

Reinvention through "design thinking"

I want to work with the fast company part of my organization!

 IBM faces a dilemma. How can they continue to reinvent themselves so they can meet the growth targets Wall Street demands?

IBM has more than 370,000 employees. While its revenues are huge, the company’s quarterly reports have shown them steadily declining in the last two years. The falloff in revenue is partly intentional, as the company sold off less profitable operations, but the sometimes disappointing profits are not, and they reflect IBM’s struggle with its transition. Last month, the company shaved its profit target for 2015.

In recent years, the company has invested heavily in new fields, including data analytics, cloud computing, mobile technology, security, social media software for business and its Watson artificial intelligence technology. Those businesses are growing rapidly, generating revenue of $25 billion last year, and IBM forecasts that they will contribute $40 billion by 2018, through internal growth and acquisitions. Just recently, for example, IBM agreed to pay $2 billion for the Weather Company (not including its television channel), gaining its real-time and historical weather data to feed into Watson and analytics software.

But IBM’s biggest businesses are still the traditional ones — conventional hardware, software and services — which contribute 60 percent of its revenue and most of its profit. And these IBM mainstays are vulnerable, as customers increasingly prefer to buy software as a service, delivered over the Internet from remote data centers.

Virginia M. Rometty, IBM’s chief executive, has warned that this will be a difficult transition year. It will take time, she says, before its new businesses are large enough to become engines of growth for the whole company. The strategy, she insists, is the right one. What remains is to move ahead faster. “People ask, ‘Is there a silver bullet?’” Ms. Rometty said in a recent interview. “The silver bullet, you might say, is speed, this idea of speed.”

One key strategy is called "design thinking". Here is a brief explanation:

Mr. Gilbert answers that question with something called design thinking. (His title is general manager of design.) Among other things, design thinking flips traditional technology product development on its head. The old way is that you come up with a new product idea and then try to sell it to customers. In the design thinking way, the idea is to identify users’ needs as a starting point.

Mr. Gilbert and his team talk a lot about “iteration cycles,” “lateral thinking,” “user journeys” and “empathy maps.” To the uninitiated, the canons of design thinking can sound mushy and self-evident. But across corporate America, there is a rising enthusiasm for design thinking not only to develop products but also to guide strategy and shape decisions of all kinds. The September cover article of the Harvard Business Review was “The Evolution of Design Thinking.” Venture capital firms are hiring design experts, and so are companies in many industries.

This laser focus on customer needs can lead to new insights. Here is an example of how IBM trains its personnel in "design thinking":

Defining problems more expansively is part of the design-thinking ethos. At a course in New York recently, a group of IBM managers were given pads and felt-tip pens and told to sketch designs for “the thing that holds flowers on a table” in two minutes. The results, predictably, were vases of different sizes and shapes.

Next, they were given two minutes to design “a better way for people to enjoy flowers in their home.” In Round 2, the ideas included wall placements, a rotating flower pot run by solar power and a software app for displaying images of flowers on a home TV screen.

IBM is competing for talent against top names in technology like Apple and Google. Here is how they recruit prospective college graduates:

The recruiting pitch made by Mr. Gilbert and his colleagues has been essentially twofold: First, you can make a difference in socially important fields because IBM’s technology plays a crucial role in health care, energy, transportation, water and even agriculture. Second, you can be part of a groundbreaking effort to apply design thinking in business.

At Stanford, the prevailing view of working for IBM, Mr. Burnett said, has shifted from “Are you kidding me?” to “This is a pretty interesting opportunity.”

Joe Kendall thinks so. Mr. Kendall, 28, finished a two-year graduate design program at Stanford and joined IBM in June. He chose IBM over Apple, where he would have worked in its iPhone business. At Apple, he figured, his opportunity would be to help make a great product a little bit better. At IBM, Mr. Kendall sees a different opportunity. “No one is using design thinking to solve problems on this scale,” he said, adding that he could be part of “changing the future of this giant entity.”

The article goes on to note that all of the top senior executives have taken the training. Here is an example of how the work is being executed with one customer:

That proved to be the case for GameStop, a video game and electronics retailer. Jeff Donaldson, a GameStop technology executive, recalled that IBM’s reputation at the company’s suburban Dallas headquarters was as a slow-moving corporate bureaucracy, dominated by a sales culture offering expensive hardware and software. The reputation, he said, was “certainly not positive.”

But in the last year or so, the two companies have worked side by side — often in IBM’s Austin studio — to figure out better ways to serve GameStop customers with mobile devices and data. The floor staff at GameStop’s more than 4,100 stores in the United States can now tap iPads to look up the past purchases of customers who have downloaded the GameStop app or joined the company’s loyalty program. Coupons, trade-ins and loyalty-point rewards can be offered on the spot, as well as game recommendations.

The cloud software to make it happen was built in a few months, tested in a small group of stores and then quickly rolled out nationwide. Further projects are in the works to study how online behavior affects buying patterns.

“They’ve completely turned us around,” Mr. Donaldson said. “We’re working with the fast company part of IBM.”

Here is the link to the full article:  http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/15/business/ibms-design-centered-strategy-to-set-free-the-squares.html