Collateral damage

Original post:  Oct 1, 2013

This seemingly inocuous-sounding phrase can actually mask some devastating results. Collateral damage occurs when a military strike hits more than just its intended target.

I'm currently reading "A Game of Thrones." This is the novel that serves as the basis for the TV show on HBO. It is set in a medeival world of princes and kings. Much of the world centers on honor and duty and loyalty. The knights swear oaths of fealty to their lords and go to battle on their behalf.

This book in particular launches a set of bloody major battles. In each conflict, there are realistic descriptions of the battles and the consequences of those battles. In the words of one of the main characters:

"....why is it aways the innocents who suffer most, when you high lords play your game of thrones?".

There were stories in yesterday's paper about some of the unintended consequences of recent decisions. One story discussed the challenge in keeping some bright minds in scientific research which is highly dependent on increasingly uncertain government financing. Another talked about data coming from weather stations and geographic sattelites that would not be processed. Still another explained how one family would try to weather the storm without a paycheck until the crisis is solved.

I remember the last time that a government shutdown occurred. I was on the island of Maui and unable to visit Haleakala (house of the sun) because the national park was shut down. Fortunately for me, I knew that someday I would be back to take my family on the trip. I am not sure how I would have felt if that had been my only opportunity.

When I was a boy, there was a movie called Wargames. It was about a nerdy programmer who ends up helping save the world from a hyper-intelligent computer that takes over the US arsenal of nuclear weapons. The computer thinks it can win a nuclear war against the Soviets. The programmer has the computer play out thousands of scenarios that all end in complete worldwide devastation. The computer rightly concludes that "the only way to win is not to play".

For the Game of Thrones, that seems true. Even the winners end up suffering greatly.

Survivorship bias

Original post:  Jun 12, 2013

My sons enjoy learning about World War II. We've been watching a video series they brought home from the library that discusses many of the weapons from that era. They especially enjoy the combat airplanes. It was amazing to hear about the tales of the bombers surviving incredible damage and limping home.

Recently, I stumbled onto an article that discussed how an effort to protect the bombers actually highlighted an interesting fallacy that the author termed as "survivorship bias". I found the article very thought-provoking.

The author defines survivorship bias as follows:

The Misconception: You should study the successful if you wish to become successful.

The Truth: When failure becomes invisible, the difference between failure and success may also become invisible.

In WW II, the Department of War devoted resources to using mathematics to help the war effort. Since bombers were highly vulnerable, they decided to try to improve the odds of helping the crews return safely by strengthening the armor on the planes.

"The military looked at the bombers that had returned from enemy territory. They recorded where those planes had taken the most damage. Over and over again, they saw the bullet holes tended to accumulate along the wings, around the tail gunner, and down the center of the body. Wings. Body. Tail gunner. Considering this information, where would you put the extra armor? Naturally, the commanders wanted to put the thicker protection where they could clearly see the most damage, where the holes clustered. But Wald said no, that would be precisely the wrong decision. Putting the armor there wouldn’t improve their chances at all."

"Do you understand why it was a foolish idea? The mistake, which Wald saw instantly, was that the holes showed where the planes were strongest. The holes showed where a bomber could be shot and still survive the flight home, Wald explained. After all, here they were, holes and all. It was the planes that weren’t there that needed extra protection, and they had needed it in places that these planes had not. The holes in the surviving planes actually revealed the locations that needed the least additional armor. Look at where the survivors are unharmed, he said, and that’s where these bombers are most vulnerable; that’s where the planes that didn’t make it back were hit."

There may be some situations where we really need to think deeply about our issues. The answer may not be as obvious as it seems to be!

The author continues:

"Simply put, survivorship bias is your tendency to focus on survivors instead of whatever you would call a non-survivor depending on the situation. Sometimes that means you tend to focus on the living instead of the dead, or on winners instead of losers, or on successes instead of failures. In Wald’s problem, the military focused on the planes that made it home and almost made a terrible decision because they ignored the ones that got shot down."

As the psychologist Daniel Kahneman writes in his book Thinking Fast and Slow, “A stupid decision that works out well becomes a brilliant decision in hindsight.” The things a great company like Microsoft or Google or Apple did right are like the planes with bullet holes in the wings. The companies that burned all the way to the ground after taking massive damage fade from memory. Before you emulate the history of a famous company, Kahneman says, you should imagine going back in time when that company was just getting by and ask yourself if the outcome of its decisions were in any way predictable. If not, you are probably seeing patterns in hindsight where there was only chaos in the moment. He sums it up like so, “If you group successes together and look for what makes them similar, the only real answer will be luck.”

Here is the link to the full article:  http://youarenotsosmart.com/2013/05/23/survivorship-bias/