Tuesday, February 23, 2016

4G? No, 5G!!

Mobile applications require bandwidth. Generally speaking, speed is a necessity. As the internet becomes more pervasive and we ask our smartphones and devices to perform ever more sophisticated tasks, the demand for greater capacity grows. The planned "Internet of Things" will add billions of new connections. Google's dream of self-driving cars will need near instantaneous responses that can only occur with vastly improved infrastructure--especially in wireless communication.

The current state-of-the-art is 4G LTE. Top speeds can hit about 15 megabits per second. When available, it allows the user to download a high definition movie in about eight minutes. There are lab tests underway on the next generation of access called 5G. At top speeds in excess of 10 gigabits per second, that same movie will download in about five seconds!

Today, this technology is confined to the lab and highly controlled tests. It could be many years before you start to see this in full production. Major companies like Verizon, AT&T, and Cisco are working on plans to invest billions of dollars in the quest for ways to differentiate themselves.

Here are some articles that give more background on the subject.

CNET review of Verizon's plans:  Inside Verizon's vision of smokin' 5G speeds - CNET  

Friday, February 12, 2016

Blame it on the climate

We may soon have a new excuse for being late to an international event. Climate change is modifying the patterns of the jet stream. Strong winds in the upper atmosphere are intensifying. For eastbound flights, the resulting extra tailwinds will help to shorten the flights. Unfortunately, the penalty induced for westbound flights will add time to the flight. That will lead to more time for your round trip and additional fuel costs for the airlines.

The study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, looked at the effects of doubling the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, which will occur within the next few decades unless emissions are cut quickly.
The average jet-stream winds along the flight route between London’s Heathrow airport and New York’s John F. Kennedy International airport are predicted to become 15 percent faster in winter, increasing from 77 to 89 km/hr (48 to 55 mph), with similar increases in the other seasons.
As a result, London-bound flights will become twice as likely to take under 5h 20m, implying that record-breaking crossing times will occur with increasing frequency in future. On the other hand, New York-bound flights will become twice as likely to take over 7h 00m, suggesting that delayed arrivals will become increasingly common.
The article goes on to point out why the airlines can't offset this effect efficiently:

Williams says airplanes can’t just fly faster to compensate because of another effect, air friction that builds up as the plane gets closer to breaking the sound barrier.
“Airplanes fly at about 550 miles per hour, or 75 percent speed of sound (767 miles per hour),” he said. “The closer they get to 80 percent, the fuel efficiency drops off a cliff and the airline has to put an afterburner, real gas guzzlers. That’s why they don’t go any faster.”
Here is the link to the full article:  Climate Change May Delay Flights : Discovery News 

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

25 Things About Life I Wish I Had Known 10 Years Ago

Found this on Medium by Darius Foroux. It was originally published on dariusforoux.com

https://medium.com/life-learning/25-things-about-life-i-wish-i-had-known-10-years-ago-61d96e93a028#.5u6xim5p0

I thought the little advice like "Don't Complain" all made sense.

Depth in analytics

We often use terms like "big data" and "analytics" as if we mean the same thing for all applications and uses. That is not true. During one of the presentations at a meeting I attended last week, there was a slide that helped explain some of the major differences along a spectrum.

The presenter discussed three main types of analytics:
  1. Descriptive:  What happened and why
  2. Predictive:    What could happen
  3. Prescriptive:   What will happen

As you can see, analytics starts by describing and reporting about past events. It helps explained what happened and then goes into the number of times specific events occurred and where. Over time, as you build your competency, you start to get into predictive and prescriptive analytics.

In the speaker's opinion, the best organizations are weaving analytics into the fabric of their organization. Data analysis becomes a key part of the basic decision-making and strategy of the organization.

I am a big fan of analytics, but I still think there are issues with this interpretation that require clarification. While I generally agree with the model, I still am unclear about how you decide whether or not you are asking the right questions. You might have tons of data, but if it isn't helping to solve your business issues, it may not be all that valuable.

Monday, February 8, 2016

Low, low prices

Last week, there were a few other surprises during my trip to Arkansas. Perhaps it's just the current world situation, but the price of a gallon of gas has dropped significantly. I was stunned when I drove past one gas station that had the following sign.

The next day, the price dropped again.
At these prices, I can understand why the cost of fuel may not be high on anyone's mind.

Ironically, the stock market is punishing most companies involved in the production of petroleum. The savings from this falling cost are not being felt by either the public at large or other companies that might benefit from this situation. I wonder how long it will take before that changes.


Thursday, February 4, 2016

A search engine for your memories

There is a wide gap between the things I can remember and the things that I can't. Last summer, I got together with high school friends for an impromptu reunion and they started reminiscing about our experience from decades ago. I laughed and smiled, but I couldn't remember what they were talking about. No doubt, it was somewhere in the hidden recesses of my mind, but I had long ago lost the road markers that would lead me there.

When I was a little boy, I used to laugh at my mother all the time. She was constantly mixing up the names of my friends. Unfortunately, it seems that I find myself doing that now and the thought is a bit unsettling.

This article discusses one way to deal with this.

“Human memory is not the same as computer memory,” said James Kozloski, an inventor at IBM who focuses on computational and applied neuroscience. “We don’t have pointers. We don’t have addresses where we can just look up the data we need.”

Kozloski wants to change that. He recently filed a patent for technology that, in the simplest terms, will help finish your sentences for you. Like autocomplete for your voice, the system is a model of human memory that could be embedded in a device and offer prompts when necessary. It would use a combination of surveillance, machine learning, and Bayesian inference—a kind of predictive modeling—to recognize when a person has forgotten something, then provide the missing information.

“The idea is quite simple,” Kozloski told me. “You monitor an individual's context, whether it’s what they’re saying or what they’re doing ... and you predict what comes next.”

Kozloski has a specific use case in mind:

If you can get past the creepiness factor, a cognitive interface like the one Kozloski envisions could theoretically be useful for anyone, but he sees specific applications for people as they get older—and especially for those who suffer from diseases like Alzheimer’s. “The loss of ability to access memory in the moment is the beginning of the breakdown of normal cognitive function: the ability of individuals to interact with others, take care of themselves, clothe themselves, cook meals,” he said.
.....
Imagine for example, if your cognitive assistant knew that when you dial a certain person’s phone number—your niece, let's say—it should also remind you of the name of her husband. The system might also know that, because of the time of day when you’re calling, the husband is more likely to pick up the phone. Or that, by checking a calendar, it happens to be his birthday.
“All of that context becomes the basis for inference as to what name should be spoken when they pick up the phone,” Kozloski said.

That information—Paige’s husband’s name is Teddy. And it’s his birthday!— could come through an earpiece or mobile device. Or it could be part of a larger—and, frankly, more Hal 9000-esque—home integration. “It could be just the speakers in your house that are primed and ready to advise, literally waiting in the wings to assist,” Kozloski said.

To me, the idea is at once brilliant and creepy. Who knows what actually lurks in our minds and would you really want perfect recall of all your memories? There may be some things best left forgotten. Of course, maybe it could also bring back some of those brilliant ideas that I had in dreams that just as quickly vanished when I woke up....

I suppose it would be nice to have something that would never mix up (or forget) someone's name!